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And you thought figuring out the BCS was tough?

ESPN-2008-12-09 - 05/27/2009

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And you thought figuring out the BCS was tough?

For all those bemoaning the current state of college football, we horse racing fans welcome you to the long-standing party. If you can't figure out what matters more -- the computers or the opinion pollsters -- you ought to pick up a copy of Daily Racing Form and stain a few shirt cuffs.

Deciphering who is tops in a horserace has been a battle between the numbers geeks and the eyes of common sense for decades. The numbers folks will tell you that their totals don't lie; the intellectualists argue that there's more that goes into evaluating talent than any slide rule or iMac with a G4 processor can possibly analyze.

The reality is that, just as in the controversial Bowl Championship Series football formula, the most reasonable deductions probably lie somewhere in-between. Trust the numbers too much, and forever kick yourself for missing something in-between the lines. Trust the pollsters, and ... well ... be ready to disagree with at least some knucklehead decisions made for reasons that don't remotely reflect sound judgment.

Of course, there are differences between the numbers and opinions when it comes to pigskins and ponies. In college football, these numbers and opinions are supposed to mesh and create the game's elite bowl-game match-ups. In racing, they mesh every single minute on the toteboard to create the games we people play.

Either way you look at it, these two deciding factors are at the center of an extremely large amount of money. The gridiron combatants each look to secure $17.5 million paydays to land one of the eight available BCS slots. In racing, the daily decisions are at the head of a $15 billion annual betting handle throughout North America.

But where the debate ends is that horse racing ultimately decides who's right and wrong on the playing field. About every three minutes on most days across America, a field of horses is sent on its way to determine the winner of the titillating and financially super-charged debate. After, say, one or two minutes, those discussions close and the reality sets in: you're either ripping up a losing ticket or skipping to the pay line.

In this game, you don't have all winter, spring and summer to complain about it while waiting for the opening of camp. Suck it up, buddy. It's post time again in about 15 minutes. And being on the wrong end of the opinion debate in horse racing will leave you a few steak dinners short at the end of the day.

The Numbers Game
If you want to discount the importance of numbers in horse racing, here's a fun fact you probably didn't have the time or interest in considering. In one single line of his past performances, last weekend's Remsen Stakes winner Old Fashioned, a leading contender for next spring's Kentucky Derby, had no less than 66 numbers displayed. On one line of his PPs! Every single digit means some thing to some body. Some are used to calculate pace and speed figures; others factor in weight carried; others consider the form cycle, class or distance.

Handicapping the horse races relies on numbers, whether you graduated Magna Cum Laude from the Geek Squad or you're a trip handicapper looking for that runner who had a stop-and-start trip on the videos you've downloaded. But what you decide to do with the numbers is what sets handicappers apart.

Those favoring the mathematics of it all will look at the raw data, spin their formulae and make their decisions with numerical confidence. The "artistic" handicapper will use the numbers to create thoughtful analysis before weaving a series of "what ifs" and insinuations.

All in all, it's a beautiful process of diversity that leaves us with a toteboard where the collective public can still only manage to be correct one-third of the time on average.

And here the football folks get their panties in a wad when the BCS hiccups every few years.